Evaluating Carbon Sink Potential of Forest Ecosystems under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Yunnan, Southwest China

Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can undoubtedly play a significant role in carbon neutrality strategy. Forests are major part of the budget terrestrial ecosystems. The possible response balance southwestern forests to different climate change scenarios was investigated through series simulations using forest ecosystem model for China (FORCCHN), which clearly represents influence factors on sequestration. Driven by downscaled global (GCM) data, FORCCHN evaluates sink potential ecosystems under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). results indicate that, first, gross primary productivity (GPP), respiration (ER) and net (NPP) expected increase from 2020 2060. Forest will maintain sink, but (NEP) peak begin decline 2030s. Second, not only is NEP SSP1-2.6 scenario higher than other 2025–2035 2043–2058, coefficient variation also narrower scenarios. Third, terms spatial distribution, sequestration northwest central Yunnan significantly that regions, with slight upward trend future. Finally, GPP ER positively correlated temperature insignificantly precipitation, increasing have negative unstable impact sinks. This study provides scientific reference implementing management strategies achieving sustainable development.